Political Figure’s High-Stakes Bet Goes Wrong
An account on the prediction market Polymarket that appears to belong to George Cottrell, a British financier and longtime associate of Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, lost more than $550,000 on bets about whether the U.S. would bomb Iran. The account, named “GCottrell93,” wagered roughly that amount on the outcome “No” to the question “US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?” according to Polymarket data first reported by The Daily Telegraph.
The position was completely wiped out after the United States actually struck Iran on February 28. It’s interesting to note that prior to this loss, the same account had won multiple bets against strikes happening before other dates in February. So it wasn’t a complete novice move—just bad timing, perhaps.
A Pattern of Political Betting
The same account also appears to have lost around $125,000 on a bet that Prime Minister Keir Starmer would be out of office by February 28. But here’s the thing: despite these recent losses, the account has actually garnered almost $3.5 million in profits overall. The bulk of that came from a bet on Trump winning the 2024 election.
Blockchain investigator ZachXBT has previously expressed “high confidence” that the account belongs to Cottrell. Cottrell has helped raise millions of pounds for Farage’s political movements over the years, including Ukip and the Brexit Party. In 2025, his mother, aristocrat Fiona Cottrell, emerged as one of Reform UK’s largest donors.
Cottrell has a long history with high-stakes betting and finance. UK court filings previously named him as part of a professional betting syndicate linked to Brighton and Hove Albion owner Tony Bloom. That syndicate, tied to the analytics firm Starlizard, reportedly generated hundreds of millions of dollars in winnings. Cottrell was said to have earned substantial sums by copying its bets.
Legal History and Current Controversies
There’s some legal history here too. Cottrell was arrested in 2016 while attending the Republican National Convention in Chicago alongside Farage. U.S. prosecutors charged him with conspiracy to commit money laundering, wire fraud, blackmail and extortion after meetings with undercover federal agents in Las Vegas. Following a plea agreement, he pleaded guilty to a single count of wire fraud and served eight months in prison.
Last month, he published a book entitled “How To Launder Money: A guide for law enforcement, prosecutors and policymakers.” The launch was attended by Farage and senior Reform UK figures.
When contacted by Decrypt, a Reform UK spokesperson said that “George Cottrell is not employed by the party so you are best approaching him for comment.” Decrypt has attempted to contact Cottrell via his company, Geostrategy.
Political Party’s Crypto Connections
This story touches on broader issues around Reform UK and cryptocurrency. The party has taken an explicitly pro-cryptocurrency stance and became the first major British political party to accept crypto donations in June 2025. This policy has drawn criticism from lawmakers and transparency campaigners who warn that cryptocurrency donations could enable money laundering or foreign interference in British elections.
Just this week, former Labour minister Rushanara Ali called for a ban on crypto political donations, describing them as a potential vector for “foreign interference in our democracy.” Seven parliamentary committee chairs also wrote to the prime minister earlier this year urging an explicit prohibition on cryptocurrency donations.
Campaign groups have raised similar concerns. The UK Anti-Corruption Coalition and Spotlight on Corruption argue that the Electoral Commission lacks the powers necessary to properly monitor the origin of crypto donations.
There’s an odd detail here: despite publicly saying it accepts crypto donations, donating online to Reform UK using crypto doesn’t seem to work. Decrypt tried to access the party’s crypto donations page online on multiple browsers and was directed to a blank page each time.
Prediction Markets Under Pressure
Cottrell’s bets come at a time of increased scrutiny of prediction markets generally. Polymarket is not licensed to operate in the UK and limits services to UK-based users. The Gambling Commission told Decrypt it “does not comment on individual businesses” but pointed to its register of licensed operators, which does not include Polymarket.
In guidance published last month, the regulator said prediction market platforms would likely fall under the legal definition of a “betting intermediary” in the UK, similar to a betting exchange, and would require the appropriate gambling licence to operate legally.
Despite arguments by some platforms that prediction markets are distinct from gambling, regulators around the world have taken an increasingly hard line. Companies in the sector face legal or regulatory challenges in numerous jurisdictions including France, Germany, Italy, Australia, Singapore, Portugal, Hungary, Thailand and the Netherlands.
I think what’s interesting here is how these different threads connect—political figures, high-stakes betting, cryptocurrency policy, and regulatory scrutiny. It’s not just about one person losing money on a bet. It’s about how these prediction markets operate in gray areas, how political parties navigate new fundraising methods, and how regulators are trying to catch up with technology that moves faster than legislation.
