Robinhood’s CIO sees continued market strength
Robinhood’s chief investment officer Stephanie Guild told CNBC that the trading platform expects positive stock market performance in 2026. She was careful to note, though, that returns might not reach double-digit levels. “For next year, we’re looking at still another strong year,” Guild said in the interview. “We’re not predicting double-digit returns for next year.”
I think that’s a pretty measured outlook, honestly. It’s not overly optimistic, but it’s not pessimistic either. Guild seems to be suggesting that the market will keep moving forward, just maybe at a more moderate pace than what we’ve seen in some recent years.
Customer activity and economic factors
Guild mentioned that Robinhood has observed increased customer participation and net buying activity, particularly during the summer months. That’s interesting because summer is often seen as a slower period for markets. But she also noted that net buying has declined from peak levels observed around October 29th.
When it comes to economic factors that could influence market performance, Guild cited several things worth watching. A potential government shutdown, interest rate movements, and labor market conditions all made her list. The company has apparently developed probability ranges around various scenarios, with the base case projecting solid strength.
Sector diversification ahead
Perhaps the most interesting part of Guild’s comments was about market diversification. She indicated expectations for growth to expand beyond the technology sector into other industries. “We think there’s probably more beef coming in other sectors,” Guild stated.
That makes sense to me. Technology has driven so much of the market’s performance in recent years, but it can’t carry everything forever. Guild’s analysis of earnings growth expectations across individual sectors revealed that technology sector projections exceed historical averages. But she believes other sectors may provide stronger support for S&P 500 performance in the coming year.
“That’s why we think at the S&P 500 level, we still see a good year, but it may be more supported by other sectors besides just tech this year,” Guild explained.
Broader market implications
Robinhood operates as one of the world’s largest retail trading platforms, so their perspective matters. They see what regular investors are doing with their money. The expectation of diversification away from large-cap stocks and major indices suggests we might see a broader market rally.
It’s worth noting that as of November, Robinhood doesn’t plan on creating a crypto treasury. That’s a separate issue, but it shows where their institutional focus lies.
Overall, Guild’s outlook seems cautiously optimistic. She’s not predicting spectacular returns, but she’s not warning of disaster either. The emphasis on sector diversification suggests a maturing market cycle where gains become more widespread. That could be healthier in the long run, even if it means slightly lower overall returns.
What strikes me is how measured this projection is. There’s no hype, no dramatic predictions. Just a professional assessment that markets will likely continue performing well, with different sectors taking turns leading the way. That feels realistic, perhaps even a bit conservative. But in today’s uncertain economic environment, conservative might be exactly what we need.
